Friday, July 06, 2007

Guest blogging...from hubby's desk

Hubby wanted to get into the blogging game, and had a great idea about how we could leverage the power of, well of betting really, to predict our success each cycle. So, the post below comes to you from the desk of Mr. Sticky Bun. (We couldn't think of a clever nickname. He thought of Dough Boy--you know, sticky bun and dough boy--but then he thought you'd picture him, well, you know, doughy. So, for now we'll continue to call him hubby.) Enjoy!

So Sticky and I have a problem: we want to handicap our cycles to figure out what our odds of success are, but despite our best efforts our doctors and nurses just won't play along.

Sticky: Hmmm...4-5 follicles at 12mm on Day 9. What does that mean for this cycle?
Dr. Smirky: (Smirking) I really can't say.


Ah, but would Smirky and his medical brethren be so silent if they had some skin in the game? Might they be more inclined to venture a guess if there was some money in it for them?

Here is the idea: an Iowa Electronic Fertility Market.

The Iowa Electronic Markets is a nonprofit futures markets operated by the University of Iowa. It's a "wisdom of the crowds" kind of thing, where people buy and sell contracts in certain outcomes (for example, political elections). Right now in the US, Slate is using this approach to predict the Democratic nominee for president:

Why not take the same approach with fertility patients? People could post their medical histories and up to date stats and people with the best knowledge of fertility medicine would buy and sell contracts based on whether they thought the women would get pregnant that cycle, within six months, within a year, etc. And, as an added benefit, we infertiles would have the benefit of lots of data on our chances of success each cycle. For instance, posting data from a poor ultrasound or bloodwork might lead to a drop in the number of people betting on us getting pregnant this cycle. But, if the cycle turned around, the odds would go up and we'd see that data change in real time.

Fertility doctors (and would be fertility doctors) get to feel the rush of matching wits and to make a little money on the side and the rest of us get some candid predictions for a change.

Who's in?


Reproductive Jeans said...

Nice spin! And welcome Mr. Sticky!=)

Amy R said...

Heh :) I wouldn't be able to handle it though mentally if I didn't get high bets. So I would rig it. :)


megan said...

candid predictions *would* be nice...
welcome, mr. SB!

The Oneliner (Christina) said...

oh that's funny. ours would be "not so likely," or "try again/"

Anns said...

Ante up, I'm in!

chicklet said...

That's hilarious. I don't know how to say I'm in or not cuz I don't totally understand, but I'm laughing none-the-less cuz this is the first I've seen of this!